Indonesian Export Dynamics in the RCEP Era: Trade Creation or Trade Diversion?

International trade is a key factor in driving economic growth and expanding a country’s market access amid increasing global economic integration. One form of regional trade integration is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which involves ASEAN countries and their trading partners in the Asia-Pacific region. This study aims to analyze the phenomena of trade creation and trade diversion of Indonesian exports within the RCEP framework during the 2005–2024 period. The study uses secondary data obtained from UN Comtrade, the World Bank, and CEPII, employing panel data regression analysis using the gravity model approach. The results indicate that the implementation of RCEP has predominantly led to trade creation rather than trade diversion, suggesting that regional trade integration has a positive impact on the development of Indonesia’s exports.