The Impact of the Rise of Guochao Culture on the Z-Generation New Chinese-Style Jewelry Industry: A Preliminary Exploration Based on Correlation and Causal Inference

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between the rise of Guochao (national trend) culture and the Z-generation new Chinese-style jewelry industry, with a particular focus on distinguishing whether the observed association constitutes a genuine causal relationship or merely a spurious correlation. Employing quantitative analytical methods, the study integrates publicly available data sources, including Weibo Index, enterprise registration data, and total e-commerce sales of relevant products. It first establishes the feasibility of the research through relevant theoretical frameworks. Subsequently, by utilizing multi-platform data and selecting the exogenous event of the 2025 “September 3rd Military Parade” as a natural experiment, the study examines changes in jewelry industry sales before and after the event to identify potential causal effects. A preliminary discussion is conducted by calculating the correlation coefficient r. Drawing upon Liu Kezhou’s qualitative research on “mutual pursuit”, this paper further demonstrates the profound influence of Guochao culture on the value identification of the Z generation. The findings suggest that Guochao culture exerts a catalytic effect on the new Chinese-style jewelry industry; however, the causal relationship remains unclear due to possible influences from short-term marketing hotspots.